For Obama, Election Portends a Future of Compromise -- or Opportunity

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On Nov. 3, there is a strong likelihood that President Obama will wake up to a decidedly different Washington, one in which his party no longer controls both -- or either -- chambers of Congress. Since taking office, the commander in chief has presided over a 58-seat majority in House and an 18-seat margin in Senate, winning passage of such landmark legislation as the Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the nation's first health care reform bill and regulation of the financial services industry.

Yet he has done so along strictly partisan lines. The president's first major piece of legislation, the Recovery Act -- tackled in the administration's early days, when Washington was presumed to be flush with post-partisan good vibes -- passed with only three Republican votes in the Senate and not one in the House.

In the many months since, even winning a handful of GOP votes on previously bipartisan initiatives has proven an uphill, at times nearly impossible, battle. Without firm Democratic control in both chambers of Congress, all progress -- or uncontrolled government meddling, depending on whom you talk to -- could come to a grinding halt.

President ObamaFor some, the prospect of a gridlocked Congress -- or at least a significantly slower legislative process -- is welcome change. On "Meet the Press" in August, Minority Leader John Boehner asserted, "The American people are screaming at the top of their lungs to Washington, 'Stop! Stop the spending! Stop the job-killing policies!' And yet Democrats in Washington refuse to listen to people. Republicans are listening."

And yet, for a White House that often finds itself on the defensive, having Republicans in charge of Congress might be a useful foil -- a backboard to bounce the ball of obstructionism against. Obama has repeatedly called the GOP "the party of no," and a do-nothing Congress may go a long way in proving his point -- especially in the run-up to his re-election bid in 2012. "In the long run," says Harold Ickes, Democratic strategist and deputy White House chief of staff under Bill Clinton, "Obama will benefit from [a Republican-controlled Congress] because he will be able to run against it in 2012."

Others think having different parties in control of the legislative and executive branches may actually spur bipartisanship. Former New Jersey senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bill Bradley posits that the divide in power "sets the stage for the president to offer some bipartisan compromise."
Bradley believes such compromise will be possible "because the economy is going to be increasingly perilous." If Republicans continue to stonewall the legislative process "without action or a strategy," says Bradley, "it would give them an economy that would be a disaster. It would not serve their best interests [in 2012]."

Bipartisan efforts notwithstanding, Bradley believes that Republican gains in Congress may ultimately have a negligible effect on the Obama administration. "In a practical legislative sense, the only difference [from now] is the scheduling of hearings that would embarrass the White House and politicize the legislative process, which isn't happening now because you have the president of the same party [that has majorities] in the House and Senate."

In 1994, when Clinton lost both houses of Congress to a conservative Republican tidal wave led by eventual House Speaker Newt Gingrich, his administration responded by moving towards the center, focusing on reducing the deficit and proclaiming an end to the era of "big government." Assuming that Obama will do the same is a mistake, cautions Ickes -- a firsthand witness from the Clinton era.

First, Ickes says, "Obama has a re-election to think about. He's going to need a strong liberal base" to come out and support him in 2012.

Then there's the issue of how to move to the center when the goal posts keep shifting: The net effect of the tea party within the ranks of the GOP remains unclear -- and just how far right the White House might need to move is still anyone's guess. In 1994, when Gingrich and his conservative brethren revealed the Contract With America, "it was there for all to see," explains Ickes. Referring to the GOP's recently released "Pledge for America," he says, "Nobody read it and nobody understands it. I think these Republicans are less well organized. Gingrich had a focus, was organized, had a 10-point program." Adds Ickes, "Republicans today are a lot more strident than they were then, less organized and less coherent."

Such considerations aside, the White House clearly would rather retain its hold on Congress than cede control to the right. In the run-up to Tuesday's election, the president has been on an ambitious cross-country tour in an effort to drive Democratic voters to the polls and keep Democratic members in their seats. For the moment, the known -- even with its attendant difficulties -- still holds more promise for Obama and his White House than the unknown landscape of a GOP-dominant Congress.
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